Canada’s Olympic Figure Skating Hopefuls
November 29th, 2009 by JessAfter going to Homesense Skate Canada International 2009 this weekend, I figured I should write something about the competition. However being a Grand Prix event in which most of the skaters are barely known, I thought that it would be more helpful if I wrote about the athletes most people would cheer for by default – in other words, the athletes from Canada. Being in Canada, the competition featured the country’s best figure skaters in all 4 disciplines: men, ladies, pairs and ice dance; as a result Skate Canada is perfect for seeing how each skater does against the international competition, as well as taking a glimpse of the results of the backstage politicking that, unfortunately, goes on in this subjective sport. As subjectivity is fundamental to figure skating, I cannot promise a completely objective post; instead, what I can offer is a less nationalistic alternative to the blind pro-Canada garbage that CBC tends to spout.
Men
In the men’s field, Canada had 3 competitors at Skate Canada, but the only one who has any sort of shot for the podium in Vancouver is Patrick Chan, World silver medalist, and Canada’s little Vancouver 2010 poster boy featured in the MacDonalds and Cheerio commercials. Chan, who was a heavy favourite for gold at Skate Canada ended up a disappointing 6th; a result that may have been caused by an injury he sustained recently and the same one that prevented him from going to his first Grand Prix event, the Rostelecom Cup in Russia.
Chan’s program components scores (PCS) for his long program were rather inflated (he earned 77 points while Daisuke Takahashi (JPN) who won this portion of the competition and silver overall received 81 points) considering he fell in every jump in the second half of his routine, thus indicating that he’s still a heavy favourite going into the Olympics. Nevertheless, he definitely needs a lot of work, considering that the 2008 ladies’ World champion, Mao Asada, can land more triple axels than he can in a program, which is pretty sad. (Only 5 ladies in the history of figure skating have landed triple axels in competition, while Asada is the only lady to have ever landed 2 in a competition. In the mens’ field, you need at least one triple axel to even be considered a top tier skater. To be the cream of the crop, men aim for quadruple jumps.) The mens’ field will be very deep in Vancouver but if he can manage two clean programs, he may be able to get on the podium – his inflated marks won’t hurt his chances either.
Ladies
Again, despite having 3 competitors at Skate Canada, the only lady who has a chance at the podium is Joannie Rochette, World silver medalist and five-time national champion. Her scores in this competition puts her in the league of World Champion Yu-na Kim of South Korea despite not having a triple-triple combination (a triple jump followed by another triple jump), which again, indicates inflation as the triple-triple has now become the mark of a top-tier skater if combined with a difficult and clean program in the ladies’ discipline. Although the ladies’ field is less steep, the only way Rochette will get a gold medal is if all of the top tier skaters spaz out while she skates clean. A medal in general is in her reach, but her chances of a medal, instead of being dependent on her, will depend on her rivals and her score inflations.
Pairs
Jessica Dube and Bryce Davison are Canada’s best pair, but that doesn’t really say much when they compete in the international scene. Despite a bronze medal at Worlds in 2008 (a lot of teams were injured that season) and a bronze in this competition, the huge gap in scores between themselves and the 2009 Skate Canada silver medalists (166.93 and 185.71) indicate that they definitely are not on par with the leading group of pairs skaters in the world. (The World Champions who were also at Skate Canada scored 206.71.) A chance for a medal of any colour will be almost impossible for them and the CBC should honestly stop getting Canadians’ hopes up.
Ice Dance
Despite an injury that made them miss half their season last year, Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir are back and are ready to rock the world scene. Coming off a gold medal at the Trophee Eric Bompard in Paris, Virtue and Moir won another gold this weekend, even with two stumbles in the original dance. Luckily enough, the stumbles happened early on in the season and in Canada. Being serious competitors, Virtue and Moir will be sure to fix their mistakes for Vancouver, but in terms of what happened in Skate Canada, the flaws in their routine were readily forgiven since their marks were the highest for that portion of the competition. (Yes, it’s inflation again.) Nonetheless, Virtue and Moir skated a beautiful free dance (I nearly cried) and for once, did not incur any deductions for extended lifts, which has happened in the last two times they presented the program in competition.
Virtue and Moir has a good shot for the podium and unlike Joannie Rochette, their chances on the podium depend on themselves and their skating. If they can stop screwing up in the original dance – something that they did in the last two Worlds competitions – and skate their free dance wonderfully as they did this weekend, they have a good shot for gold.
Another Canadian team that dazzled the crowd this weekend was that of Kaitlyn Weaver and Andrew Poje who won bronze at the competition. The difference between them and Virtue and Moir is clear and huge, but the surprise is that they might just be able to take the second of two spots that Canada was given for the Olympics if they beat Vanessa Crone and Paul Poirier at Nationals. Although they have no chance for an Olympic medal, they have shown considerable improvement over the years and may be an up and coming team for the Olympics in 2014 if they continue with their progress. I personally prefer Weaver and Poje to Crone and Poirier since they are more expressive and interesting to watch. Their bronze medal this weekend is important for their Olympic chances since they beat Crone and Poirier’s arch rivals in their junior years, Emily Samuelson and Evan Bates of the U.S.
I hope that this gives you a sort of idea of Canada’s chances at medals in figure skating for the upcoming Olympics. On the topic of inflation, please bear in mind that the games will be in Vancouver, Canada. Any inflation that occurred for the Canadian skaters this weekend will likely happen again. Now do you get the meaning of hometown advantage?
Anyways, if you prefer CBC’s judgements on the sport, feel free to read PJ Kwong’s blog, although I shall be slightly arrogant and boast that so far this year, my predictions for who will win gold at each competition has been better than hers.
Picture by Jess.
Pictured: Ice dance medalists from left to right – Natalie Pechalat and Fabian Bourzat (FRA, silver), Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir (CAN, gold), Kaitlyn Weaver and Andrew Poje (CAN, bronze).
December 2nd, 2009 at 1:08 am
“A chance for a medal of any colour will be almost impossible for them and the CBC should honestly stop getting Canadians’ hopes up.”
Ah, Jess, tell us how you REALLY feel…;)
February 18th, 2010 at 2:26 am
Hi Jess!
I am imoressed with your Gold medal calls because I agree that I was completely out to lunch at times.
You write some really interesting stuff
Am always interested in hearing what other people have to say…
I gave been saying for a while that our buggest chance at a medal at the Olympics was in ice dance…and an outside chance in Ladies…what do you think?
Cheers from Vancouver
Pj
February 18th, 2010 at 2:27 am
oops…sorry for the typos …I am bberrying in a darkened car!
Pj
March 2nd, 2010 at 10:06 am
Who was the boy who skated in the Parade Of Champions was introduced By Evan the Usa Gold medalist, he was chinese and from Vancouver
March 2nd, 2010 at 2:16 pm
The name of that little boy is Nam Nguyen. He’s 11 and already he reminds of Kurt Browning. Too bad he won’t be old enough to compete in Sochi.
March 3rd, 2010 at 10:55 pm
http://www3.telus.net/namnguyen/ is Nam’s website. He was borned in Ottawa and grew up in B.C. He will be 15 years old in year 2014 and enough age for Sochi Olympic. But could he qualify to be selected into team of Canada at that time? We will have to wait and see… in 4 more years.